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THE HAGUE — US President Donald Trump walked away from the 2025 NATO summit with a major win. For the first time, Alliance members formally committed to spending 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, including 3.5% on core military capabilities and 1.5% on security-adjacent infrastructure.
“It’s not a rip-off,” Trump declared—signaling a rare moment of praise for NATO after years of skepticism.
The unusually short summit communiqué reaffirmed NATO’s Article 5 collective defense pledge, but conspicuously left out any new commitments on Ukraine, Russian sanctions, or long-term US troop presence in Europe.
THE 5% DEFENSE PLEDGE: A TRUMP VICTORY
Trump’s push for increased burden sharing appears to have worked. NATO’s shift from a 2% to a 5% target could mark a historic expansion in European defense capacity—if countries follow through.
“This is a clear success for Trump and for the Alliance,” said one analyst. “It operationalizes NATO’s plans to deter Russian aggression.”
But the agreement contains loopholes. Countries like Spain have already signaled they may not comply, raising questions about whether all 32 member states will hit the target—or whether this is another case of selective implementation.
UKRAINE SIDELINED—AGAIN
Despite increased NATO spending being explicitly linked to the Russian threat, the summit produced no new sanctions, no clear path for Ukraine to join NATO, and only vague promises of additional military aid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was relegated to side events, and the Alliance reportedly scrapped a new strategic doctrine on Russia to avoid “setting off” Trump.
Trump did meet with Zelenskyy and showed some openness to air defense aid, but no formal commitments were made—and a bipartisan sanctions bill remains stalled in the Senate, pending White House approval.
“Trump is still reluctant to pressure the Kremlin,” one expert warned.
EUROPE’S UNCERTAIN FUTURE
While Trump backed Article 5 on paper, he avoided commenting on future US troop levels in Europe. His administration is signaling a pivot toward Asia and the Western Hemisphere, leaving NATO’s European flank strategically exposed.
“Any significant US drawdown could unravel the force distribution needed for NATO’s regional defense plans,” analysts cautioned.
This ambiguity leaves European leaders with a hard question: Can they trust the US to anchor the continent’s security—or do they need to start preparing to go it alone?
BOTTOM LINE
Trump's triumph in The Hague solidified a stronger, more expensive NATO, but the summit also exposed deep strategic gaps. Ukraine remains on the fringes. Russia remains unpunished. And Europe may soon have to defend itself without certainty of American boots on the ground.
As the world watches for Trump’s next move, the Alliance’s unity remains more rhetorical than real—and Ukraine is once again left holding the line.